Adapting to a new paradigm

What are the consequences of the fact that never before have so many people regularly left Macau to spend the weekend across the border, or at least one of their days off?

Macau Business magazine l January 2026 | Special Report | Northbound Fever

What makes this moment unique in Macau’s social and economic history is that this “flight” from south to north coincides with an “invasion” from north to south: the numbers show that never before have so many tourists visited Macau as in the past months of 2025.

This is Macau’s new socio-economic paradigm, but it’s not the only change residents have to get used to. Tourists are arriving in numbers never seen before, but they are spending much less than they did before the pandemic.

Average per-capita non-gaming spending for the first nine months of last year fell by 9.5 per cent to MOP1,963 (US$245.16), according to the Statistics and Census Service (DSEC).

Visitors from the mainland, Hong Kong, Taiwan and overseas markets spent an average of MOP2,206, MOP981, MOP2,084 and MOP1,993 respectively, marking year-on-year declines of 11.3 per cent, 9.0 per cent, 1.1 per cent and 11.2 per cent.

However, overall expenditure has increased owing to the greater number of tourists. During the first three quarters of 2025, total non-gaming spending by visitors reached MOP58.25 billion, up 3.6 per cent year-on-year.

A radical change in consumer behaviour

Over the past two years, the economic recovery driven by external demand “has not effectively spread to more than half of the sectors,” concluded a study by the Monetary Authority. The gaming, hotel and restaurant sectors were the only ones that “significantly benefited” from the arrival of more visitors to the territory.

“This phenomenon is here to stay, reflecting a fundamental shift in consumer behavior,” states José Alves, Dean of the Faculty of Business at the City University of Macau.

Although Prof. Alves warns that relying on key performance indicators that measure only the number of tourists or visitors can create “a false perception of prosperity” and that instead “performance indicators should focus on quality of life,” the Macau-based scholar recognises that “changing to this mindset is difficult because it exposes systemic weaknesses and demands greater accountability from everyone.”

Professor Ricardo Siu’s recommendations are in the same vein: “Since the reductions in spending by tourists in Macau’s retail sector largely reflect a radical change in their consumption behavior, the affected retail SMEs should reconsider their market positioning by targeting lower-budget and younger-aged tourists, and explore whether it is possible to revise and diversify their product mix.”

Otherwise, the Professor of Business Economics at the Faculty of Business Administration, University of Macau, also explains, “some of these SMEs will have to face the definitive alternative of ceasing their business.”

“In the past, tourists from neighboring areas came to Macau for luxury shopping, but as they gathered enough travel experience to buy similar luxury items, they tended to do so elsewhere (like high-end watches in Switzerland),” adds Patrick Lo, Lecturer at the Faculty of Creative Tourism and Smart Technologies at Macao University of Tourism.

“Gone were the high-end spenders, and they are now replaced by those younger, more well-educated but relatively green in the labor market, as many of them are fresh graduates who don’t resist or overturn,” continues Patrick Lo.

“Another successful chapter for Macau tourism industry”?

To respond to the new paradigms, SMEs must “shift their business model,” for example by promoting more “experience-driven events such as food tours, heritage or community walks, and also non-gaming attractions such as museums and nature trails. Macau can also consider offering services to tourists at different pricing tiers in local tours and accommodations to facilitate the needs of tourists with various budgets,” concludes Dr Lo.

According to the Lecturer at Macao University of Tourism, “Macau indeed does not need to worry and fear this trend shift, if they can apply the correct recipe to cope with it.” And in that case, “then it would be another successful chapter for Macau tourism industry to attract tourists from different facets to enjoy the kind of new and wonderful offerings in Macau.”

But, as José Alves warns, “Too often, there is an expectation that the government alone should provide solutions. In reality, meaningful change also depends on individuals — on our willingness to adapt, innovate, and move beyond our comfort zones. Organizations need to invest more in people, and people need to commit more effort to self-improvement. Culture is hard to change,” he sentences to Macau Business.

“The attractiveness of Guangdong Province to Macau residents will continue to grow”

Xinhua/Liu Dawei

Two recent – and still rare – studies show that this double paradigm is not a passing fad.

On the one hand, travel from south to north will continue, as “the perception of Macau residents considering Guangdong as a travel destination is not solely based on ease of travel, but rather on the reasons why Guangdong Province is appealing to them. By implementing more policy measures and infrastructure development in the GBA (…) the attractiveness of Guangdong Province to Macau residents will continue to grow.” (Factors Influencing the Utilization of Northbound Travel for Macao Vehicles Among Macao Residents, 2025).

On the other hand, a study that aims to understand Chinese tourists’ changing shopping experience in Macau “identified changing patterns in Chinese tourists’ shopping experiences, including increased leisure components while shopping, decreased luxury pursuits and an improved overall leisure and shopping because experience of decreased prices in accommodation and a less crowded retail and leisure environment” (Understanding Chinese tourist exchange experience in Macao: pre and on COVID-19 via user generated content, 2024).

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