OPINION – When there are winners but no losers: The outcome of the 2025 Legislative Assembly election in Macau

By José Luís de Sales Marques

Economist

﻿Macau Business magazine l October 2025

The 2025 direct election for the Macau Legislative Assembly (MLA) was won by Nova Esperança (New Hope), led by veteran lawmaker José Pereira Coutinho. With 26.7 per cent of votes (43,400), Coutinho got a landslide margin of 8.5 percentage points over runners-up Associação dos Cidadãos Unidos de Macau (Macau United Citizens Association), winners of all past elections since 2005. Both platforms elected three legislators to the new 2025–2029 legislative body, and the remaining four tickets elected two deputies each, for a total of fourteen directly elected members.

By the numbers, there was a clear winner but no loser, in the sense that all other electoral platforms were able to reach the same number of MLA members as in the previous legislature. The Macau Legislative Assembly comprises 14 elected members by universal suffrage, 12 by indirect election in representation of business, professional, and cultural interests, and seven appointed by the Chief Executive. Coutinho’s victory was even more significant as his platform increased 138 per cent in voting numbers over four years ago, just short of electing two more representatives by a margin of 1,942 votes. Coutinho’s results were considered the great surprise of the electoral evening by most commentators and the winner himself, although the reasons have divided opinion. The fact that Coutinho is Portuguese also attracted media curiosity beyond the region, particularly in Portugal.

The 2025 direct elections were a success for the local and central governments, a great win for New Hope and, in terms of elected legislators and overall results, also good for the traditional camp, while other lists managed to consolidate their positions. Ironically, for all those who criticised the lack of choices at the Macau election with the new electoral law, its outcome could not be better

On a contrasting note, the results produced by indirect elections did not offer any surprises. Following the retirement of four veteran lawmakers, namely the last president and vice-president of the Legislative Assembly, respectively Kou Hoi In and Chui Sai Cheong, and also lawmakers Vong Hin Fai and Chan Chak Mo, the electoral body in this category is made up of associations duly recognised from each of the respective sectors: industrial, commercial and financial sectors with four lawmakers; the labour sector with two representatives; the professional sector with three representatives; the social and educational sector with one representative; and two representatives for the cultural and sports sector. If tradition is to be continued, the new MLA president will come from the indirectly elected group of legislators, which have several veteran lawmakers among them: Chui Sai Peng José, Ip Sio Kai, Si Ka Lon, Ho Kevin King Sun, Ho Iong San, Leong On Kei and Ma Chi Seng.

There are no pre- or post-electoral surveys in Macau and, therefore, any opinions on those outcomes must be based on past and present data of the electoral process provided by the MSAR authorities and experts’ insights. However, before we immerse ourselves in further commentaries, two caveats. Firstly, the electoral process was impeccable, smoothly run and managed by the government, and the polling stations were designed to be voter friendly; and, secondly, all of the participating electoral tickets and candidates were previously screened and approved in accordance with the new electoral law, and therefore, notwithstanding differences, they are all part of the “love Macau, love China” and “Patriots governing Macau” camp. As previously announced, two candidacies, one headed by former lawmaker Ron Lam and another by Alberto Wong, were excluded from the electoral process by the respective committee invoking national security reasons.

In such a context of overall political conformity, it is preferable to differentiate the participating electoral platforms in accordance with their historical and sociological backgrounds, proposals presented during the electoral campaign, and past and present results. Therefore, as we focus on direct elections, we have differentiated the participating platforms into two major groups: traditional grassroots-based electoral platforms and the non-traditional ones. Within those groups, important differences exist in their electoral bases and in their programmes and practices, which have eventually consolidated or shifted over the last two decades.

To be fair to Coutinho and his team, the outcome they achieved was, in essence, a reflection of their work

Under this first grouping of traditional grassroots groups, there are three electoral platforms, each supported by a major historical association, union or federation, all of which were founded decades ago and have participated, jointly or separately, in all major electoral processes in the Macau SAR and even before, during the Portuguese administration. Notably, two of those groups have also participated in direct municipal elections when those existed in this region, and their representatives are appointed for all important consultative councils initiated by the Macau government. It is the case of the General Union of Neighbourhood Associations (Kaifong) and the Macau Federation of Trade Unions (MFTU).

The Women’s General Association of Macau (WGAM) became a separate electoral force only in 2017, when they presented a separate ticket from the traditional alliance with the “kaifong”, a strategic move to maximise electoral benefits. These organisations are the main pillars of the Union of the Promotion of Progress (UPP), the Union for Development (UPD) and the Alliance for a Happy Home. While the first two are clearly based on district neighbourhoods and professional groups, the Women’s Association is not a typical genre-based association but much more a family-based association, that somehow complements the other two in a triadic formulation of place, work and family, an interpretation of the united front with Macau characteristics. They have shown resilience over the years with cadres training and renewal, despite some significant setbacks suffered by the Union for Development in 2013, when the ticket lost 6.7 per cent, from 21,098 to 11,960 votes, and was, therefore, limited to only one directly elected lawmaker. In light of profound changes in the labour front, with many casino workers mobilised by their associations, groupings or even employers, their traditional base suffered great erosion. In the face of new challenges, the Federation was, according to media, advised by representatives of the Liaison Office (JTM, 9/Aug/2016) to adapt to new times, be more attractive to young people and support “employment, education and entrepreneurship”.

There was a clear winner but no loser, in the sense that all other electoral platforms were able to reach the same number of Legislative Assembly members as in the previous legislature.

In the 2017 election, the most competitive in terms of the number of tickets, MFTU began recovering, improving results with new faces and electing a second deputy, followed by strong recovery in 2021 and stabilisation in 2025 with 17 per cent of all valid votes. Commentators have generally associated the recovery of UP with the dismissal or phasing out of casino-sponsored electoral platforms, bringing back casino workers to established electoral platforms. Contrary to the Workers Association, the district-based UPP electoral results behaved quite steadily around 9–11 per cent of voters, dropping to 7.1 per cent in 2017 and losing one legislator to their partners, the Women’s Association, which presented their own electoral platform that year in the shape of the Alliance for a Happy Home, peaking again in the current elections, with a total of 13.4 per cent of valid votes. According to commentators, the strategic move of the Women’s Association in running its own platform presented some calculated risk, since the agenda for such a platform made it quite similar to the “kaifong” propositions. However, the Alliance for a Happy Home managed to consolidate its position, growing every four electoral years, from a starting result of 5.4 per cent of electors’ choice in 2017 to the current 11.6 per cent of valid votes. Altogether, the three grassroots electoral platforms were rewarded in this year’s election with 67,927 (41.9 per cent) of votes, corresponding to six deputies and an overall increase in their share in the total number of votes. (See Table 2.)

The Macau-Guangdong Union is the electoral platform of the Macau Jiangmen (Kong Mun) Communal Society and their first participation in direct elections was in 2009, successfully electing Mak Soi Kun, a building contractor and leader of the Jiangmen community. The elected lawmaker was also the founder of the aforementioned society. The list improved considerably its results in 2013, when Zheng Anting joined Mak Soi Kun as the second elected lawmaker for the ticket. When Mak Soi Kun retired from direct suffrage in 2021, Zheng was joined by Lo Choi In, the list being able to keep a second lawmaker even without its founding leader. However, both deputies were not featured in the current edition of the Macau-Guangdong Union, which is headed by economist Joey Lao, with a PhD in administration, past president of the Macau Economic Association, who was appointed MLA member (2013–2019) by CE Chui Sai On, and businessman Lee Koi Ian, head of Seng Fung jewellery and leader of the Young Macau Entrepreneurs Association, both elected. What distinguishes the Macau-Guangdong Union from the previous grassroots traditional groups is their focus on the supply side of the economy, improving the business environment for a “Happier Macau”. It positions the platform closer to traditional interests associated with the Commercial Association of Macau and well represented in the MLA by the legislators elected by indirect suffrage. The Macau-Guangdong Union seems to be going through some long-term adjustments that will eventually bring more future gains, with a choice of well-educated candidates and adding new dynamism to their work.

Chan Meng Kam took the 2005 elections by storm when his Macau United Citizens Association (ACUM) won the direct suffrage with 20,701 votes (16.6%), electing its leader and Un Choi Ku to the legislature. The electoral platform is based on the Fujianese community established in Macau. Chan’s victory announced a new political force that, since then, has consistently won every direct election in this region until last September 14th, when they were second best to New Hope! It is well known that the Fujianese community constitutes a tight group in number and historical importance among the population of Macau. The best result of this platform was in 2021, when it reached about 20 per cent of valid votes. However, this year, the platform received 29,459 votes, their best ever, which allowed them to keep three elected deputies.

Labelled as pro-business, Macau United Citizens Association has been able to be much more than a reflection of the business interests of its founder. Even they, as it is reasonable to recall, have diversified to the point that Chan is the owner of City University of Macau, a well-known higher education institution, which is well established in the region and offers the only dedicated programme at all academic levels for Portuguese-speaking countries. Their proposals and actions over the years have been catering for large sectors of society, including non-resident workers. Their electoral campaign was one of the few to include well-produced videos in the English language, appealing to the support of non-Chinese-speaking voters. By repeating the election of three representatives to the MLA through direct suffrage, the platform can also count on fellow former ACUM lawmaker Si Ka Long, who was elected through indirect suffrage.

Last but not least, the winners of this year’s election, New Hope, Nova Esperança. As soon as the results started to be released by the electoral committee, the question asked was how far it would go and whether the initial trend pointing to a surprise result would stop once the figures from the northern districts, where Macau United Citizens Association has been dominant, would decisively change what seemed to be an unpredictable outcome. But it didn’t. Then, the question was about what actually happened: why did voters give such a tremendous victory to New Hope, which is not exactly what one would call a traditional ticket? Answers were not abundant, but they tended to attribute those results to factors not directly related to the merit of the winning team. How were they able to reach such outstanding levels of dominance? Most theories were intended to minimise the merit of the winning list, for instance by attributing those results to the mobilisation of the Civil Service to voting pools by the Chief Executive. Even if all civil servants had voted for New Hope, which is improbable, it was a question of their choice, since they could have chosen any of the other five platforms. Instead, it would be wise to look first at the merits of the winning team, including the background work done by ATFPM, the Macau Civil Servants Association that has been the mainstay of the platform, which is presided over by Coutinho and Rita Santos, as chair of its General Assembly.

Firstly, New Hope has undeniably delivered, day after day, at the MLA, with regular speeches, often assertive, voicing issues that are relevant to certain, if not all, sectors of society. Secondly, New Hope came third in 2021 with more than 18,000 votes, and they have consistently improved their electoral results in every election since their first move in 2005 (See Table 3.). Thirdly, their electoral messages are clear, efficient and easy to understand. Fourth, there is hardly a day that Coutinho and his team are not running around social and cultural events or solving people’s real problems, getting in touch with constituencies and enlarging the scope of his electoral base, such as, Coutinho mentioned, with the casino workers.

Recent events—including the mobilisation of the civil service, the exclusion of certain lists from the electoral act, and the economic pressures felt across society—ultimately drew more voters to this ticket, helping to explain the exponential growth in its results. To be fair to Coutinho and his team, the outcome they achieved was, in essence, a reflection of their work. The other factors that elevated it to an exceptional level relate to the dynamism of Macau’s society and the total number of voters who took part in the election, even though the participation rate itself was only average.

The challenge for New Hope is what comes next. Will they be able to sustain this level of support for the next elections? Will Coutinho be able to find some “new blood” that will continue his work into the future?

In conclusion, the 2025 direct elections were a success for the local and central governments, a great win for New Hope and, in terms of elected legislators and overall results, also good for the traditional camp, while other lists managed to consolidate their positions. Ironically, for all those who criticised the lack of choices at the Macau election with the new electoral law, its outcome could not be better, proving the contrary.