OPINION – 2026 – New Year for an Old World Order, or First Year for a New One?

As fireworks welcoming a New Year are still lighting up the skies with renewed hope for a better tomorrow, the world we are living in is facing constant challenges threatening global peace and stability on a scale that has not been seen for generations. Since the 1970s, the level of noise, real rivalry and conflict among big powers has not reached the scale seen today.

José Luís de Sales Marques
Economist

On every continent, there are also flashes of real or potential violent confrontations that no one can ignore at their own peril. Old alliances crafted decades ago and defining the status quo of the global order, such as the US–Europe transatlantic one, are breaking down, and new partnerships are being forged, particularly among nations in the Global South (which is a geopolitical construction) and with China at centre stage, in a flood of political and economic magma shaking the existing world order.

The American-centred world order as we know it, with the Washington Consensus, multilateralism, economic neo-liberalism, globalisation and joint efforts in governing the challenges of climate change, is now officially gone. Officially, because although it was already in the process of deconstruction through several policies and initiatives enacted by Trump 1.0 and the first year of his second mandate, it is now all clearly stated in the National Security Strategy (NSS), released by the White House in November 2025 (whitehouse.gov), a document worth reading in its entirety. And, as some changes introduced during the Trump 1.0 administration have proven, such as its China policies, the America First NSS will not be easily challenged by any new US administration that might come after, whatever the colour it will wear.

It is, therefore, not unreasonable to think that 2026 will eventually be remembered as the first year of a new world order, or at least of one that, while recognising America as the hegemonic power, will have many of the traits of the old (existing) order changed to the point of it being unrecognisable. What will be its full consequences, and how the American people and the world will react to those changes, is something that only time will tell.

China is, as expected, both in the letter and the spirit of the document, the centre of rivalry, the adversary whose economic and trade actions over the last 25 years or so, after its accession to the WTO in 2001, are considered the root problem behind most, if not all, of the structural issues facing America as a society and a nation. The objective and intent of countering and containing China’s rising influence in the “Western Hemisphere” is obvious. It is coined the “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine.

However, the most controversial, if not surprising, take that the document reveals is on Europe. “Promoting European Greatness” is the subtitle of the charter dedicated to the “Old Continent”, whose “economic decline is eclipsed by the real and more stark prospect of civilisation erasure”. The crux of the matter lies in the “activities of the European Union and other transnational bodies that undermine political liberty and sovereignty, migration policies that are transforming the continent and creating strife, censorship of free speech and suppression of political opposition, cratering birth rates, and loss of national identities and self-confidence” and that, “should present trends continue, the continent will be unrecognisable in 20 years or less”. And, in regard to the war in Ukraine, “a large European majority wants peace, yet that desire is not translated into policy, in large measure because of those governments’ subversion of democratic processes”.

The American-centred world order as we know it, with the Washington Consensus, multilateralism, economic neo-liberalism, globalisation and joint efforts in governing the challenges of climate change, is now officially gone

The remedy is for America to “encourage its political allies in Europe to promote this revival of spirit, and the growing influence of patriotic European parties indeed gives cause for great optimism”. Just imagine Brussels’ reaction, so keen on declaring its own superior principles and norms on others considered to be non-like-minded governments, to be, for once, at the receiving end of such claims, which are a gross interference in its internal affairs. Trump also calls on Europe to be realistic about NATO expansion and Russia’s expansionist intentions, a view that is not clearly supported by the current administration.

Overall, Europe and the EU are called upon to share the defence burden, raising NATO commitments from 2 per cent to 5 per cent of GDP, to further open markets to American exports, to invest in US industries, to align with its China policy and, basically, to do whatever he and his administration see fit as corresponding to America First interests. In the meantime, the end of the Ukraine war, as seen from Washington, is still very much a Trump–Putin deal centred on US strategic relations with Russia and focused on lucrative post-war Ukraine reconstruction, rather than on any of the Europeans’ proclaimed concerns.

To add insult to injury, Trump ended 2025 by appointing Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry as his special envoy to Greenland, a self-governing Danish territory, to convince the people of that Arctic island to leave Denmark and become part of the United States. To this blunt act of encouraging secession from an old NATO ally, the Kingdom of Denmark, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen issued only a minimalistic statement: “We stand in full solidarity with Denmark and the people of Greenland.” No further comments.

In conclusion, the America First National Security Strategy formalises, in a single document, the current American administration’s worldview. It formulates a set of principles and strategies that move the US away from its traditional normative and ideological views of a rules-based international order and respect for international law. It is based on controlling the Western Hemisphere through whichever means are required, so that America’s interests will not only remain but expand, and other non-hemispheric powers’ influence in the region will be kept at bay, using a set of tools to persuade countries in the region to act in accordance with US interests and will.

In regard to Europe, the document is clear about what is expected from partners of an old alliance that has just been buried. China is the focus of much attention, to be kept away from the US sphere of interest and with whom the US must rebalance its trade and economic relations. It will make 2026 a special year.

Let us hope that, notwithstanding all the troubles and challenges, humanity will find enough strength, resilience and wisdom to make it a peaceful and progressive year.

Happy New Year, 2026!